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Is this a rational offer or am I lowballing?

Hi everyone,  My partner and I are in search of our first home and came across a property that we like. I was hoping some experienced purchasers would be able to advise me on an offer I’d like to make. I’m in New York. The relevant information is below.

About the property: 

Built in 2015, listing price is $499,000 (this listing price is DOWN from $550,000 earlier in the year).

Sq ft: 895 ($558/sq ft)

Rooms: 2 bedroom 1 bathroom

Days on the market: 95

About the neighborhood:

Median listing price: $530,000 (down 5%)

Median $/sq ft: $483/sq ft

Home supply: up by 5%

Average time on market: 161 days

Comparable property:

Another unit in the same building just sold last week for $450,000. That unit was 950 sq ft but was only 1 bed room 1 bathroom. It also had a decent sized balcony and a nicer setup generally speaking. It’s $473/sq ft. 

What I want to offer and why:

I want to start my offer at 420,000 (around 15%-16% lower than listing price and would bring it to 469/sq ft). This is a lot to ask off but I’ve seen other units in this building sell for 8% to 10% off listing price in the last year. My goal is to get the property less than 440,000, ideally 430,000 because that would bring us to almost exactly what the average $/sq ft that the neighborhood is currently seeing. One problem is that $430,000 would be a 14% departure from the listing price and historically the most I’ve seen is a 10% departure and that was just a studio.

My questions:

Is this a reasonable analysis? 

Are the numbers that I provided relevant? How much weight do people really put on $/sq ft, price of other units sold and neighborhood stats?  I’ve never done analysis and the numbers I found here are from an hour or two of research. Is there anything else I should be looking into?

Thanks in advance.

submitted by /u/LawWhisperer
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source https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/15851dn/is_this_a_rational_offer_or_am_i_lowballing/

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