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Buy points, wait to refinance, or large principal payment?

First time buying a house. I'm buying a 1.6 mil home and putting 30% down (about 480k). That got me a rate locked of 5.75% with no points. I could buy up to 2.5 points at a cost of around 28k which would get my rate down to 5.125%, but I ran it through a calculator and it said my break even wouldn't be for 64 months (5.4 years). Actually, it might be more like 7 years if you consider I could invest the 28k and earn a % on it.

Would I be better off just waiting to see if rates drop prior and refinancing?

I also plan on selling our condo (maybe around 800k) in a couple months and debating if I should just put a massive chunk of that towards the mortgage principal to lower my long-term interest hit/shorten the mortgage or if I should just invest it.

I get the prevailing logic is that if rates are super high, you're better off just paying off the mortgage quickly... if rates are low, you're better off just investing the money... but this 5.75 range I'm in seems to be teetering in either direction and I guess I need to consider the possibility of being able to refinance in a couple years, which changes all my long-term math.

Thanks in advance for any thoughts/suggestions.

submitted by /u/Investnew
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source https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/15bsw0t/buy_points_wait_to_refinance_or_large_principal/
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