Which do you agree or disagree with? Which annoy you the most? I have numbered them for easier reference in comments. Please feel free to add to the list, and I will do an edit update. Please upvote so we can get some healthy debate and clarity on these points. If you disagree, then upvote so others will see and debunk this debunking.
Myth 1: Rising use of ARMs means crash in house prices
Reality: 2008'ers celebrate this as a sign of a bubble, but they ignore the fact that this increases buying power and may actually result in stronger demand for several few more years, extending the bubble.
Myth 2: Realtor companies laying off employees means market crash
Reality: Redfin is a realtor. There is very little supply. Bad for realtors. Fewer sales means no commission. Redfin can go bankrupt and this has nothing to do with the price of homes, which appear to still be near record highs.
Myth 3: Mortgage companies laying off means the housing market has crashed
Reality: The housing market is still suffering from a lack of listings. As a result, mortgage demand continues to drop. If anything, this reflects that supply is low (which means prices high because Econ101).
Myth 4: Cliched looking renovations add no value
Reality: The equivalent of the fat keyboard warrior mocking Scarlett Johannson's pointy elbows? Renovations take serious work and serious money. And they add serious resale value in these times. Just ask your wife.
Myth 5: Supply exploding upwards. Crash any day now.
Reality: Zoom out, supply is still at historic lows. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS
Myth 6: There is zero justification for any kind of home price rise since 2019.
Reality: Global plague pandemic lockdown spiked demand for more housing space. Remote work spiked demand for more office space at home. Remote school for kids, same spike. People with apartments now wanted houses. Stock market FAANG mania allowed massive transfer of wealth into real estate. PPP stimmy gave more cash to buyers. Demand for 2nd homes skyrocketed due to remote work and pandemic plague. Rates at 3% made buying a house a no brainer when 50% of payment went to equity, right back into your pocket. People stayed home for 2 years, saving huge piles of cash for down payment, and some did not pay rent for 2 years. Tidal wave of money. Supply also imploded during this time and is still at historic lows. Old people stayed put. Still are. There is almost no supply still and house prices are still at all time highs.
Myth 7: Price cuts means market has crashed
Reality: House was worth $850k in 2018. Now, in 2022, a price cut from $2.6m to $2.4m. Market has not crashed.
Myth 8: TikTok flipper investors created the real estate bubble
Reality: Investor activity went from 13% pre-COVID to 15% during COVID.
Myth 9: The market has already crashed. Doomers have won the crash debate
Reality: You predicted a crash in 2020, then again in 2021, and again in 2022. Instead houses doubled, rents went up, zero equity, and stocks got rekt. Doomers were dead wrong on every level, and today, houses are selling at record high prices, and they talk like they were right?
Myth 10: Owners will panic sell the minute they are underwater, creating a flood of selling!
Reality: You take a loan for a $25k car. A few weeks later, it's now only worth $20k. Do you panic sell it and then ride a unicycle to work? CaR iS uNdErWaTeR!! sElL iT aSaP !!
Houses are not stocks or mooncoins that you trade on your coffee break. People raise families in them. People sell houses when they divorce, relocate, retire, downsize, or upsize.
Repeat after me: Houses are not crypto that you daytrade. (And if they were, the typical retail investor never ever sells at a loss)
Parents buy houses for their families to live in for 10-20 years or more, not daytrade on their Robinhood mobile app.
Myth 11: Recession will create panic selling
Reality: Trust me, when people get laid off, selling the house is a last resort after years of scrambling. Not a first resort. Laid off? LeTs SeLl ThE hOuSe AsAp!!! Renter: 2 months to evict. Owner: 2 years to foreclose.
Myth 12: Rising rates will crash the market
Reality: Rates have risen from 2% to 6% yet its had little impact on house sales. Rates simply shook out the weakest hands at the bottom of the ladder. But, the top of the ladder was getting the winning bid all along. Selling at all time record prices but instead of 20 offers there are now a few. But at record prices. Cash buyers still have millions in cash. Cash buyers are immune to rates, as facts and reality have proven in 2022. Rising mortgage rates did not cause a crash.
Myth 13: Remote work is over. Market will crash.
Reality: 80% are not going back 5x a week. Demand for home office is still strong and now remote work is not going away anytime soon. If a couple works at home 2x a week, they will need more space.
Myth 14: No one has money. Everyone is broke. No one has money. Houses will crash.
Reality: 40-something millennial guy with 2 kids says "I want a $700k house. I earn $150k and my wife earns $150k and we have $600k of TSLA AAPL and GOOG stock, and $150k of equity from our starter condo, and both sets of in-laws are kicking in $50k as a gift" Result? He gets a house.
Myth 15: Lower sales volume means the market has crashed
Reality: There are very few new cars being sold, yet prices have spiraled upwards. Fewer sales means is there is little supply on the market. Low inventory means lower volume. Hence prices are marching to new highs. If home prices go to $6,000,000 for a starter home, there will be a lot fewer sales. Repeat after me: Volume of sales has nothing to do with price. Prices have gone HIGHER while there are fewer transactions being done.
Myth 16: Eviction moratorium means real estate crash
Myth 17: Stocks crash means real estate crash.
Myth 18: $120 oil means real estate crash
Myth 19: World War 3 means real estate crash
Myth 20: Foreclosure moratorium means real estate crash
Reality: Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope.
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source https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/vmletz/lets_debate_the_top_20_persistent_bubblecrash/
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