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[BayArea] How likely is it (statistically) that exterior water line breaks? Would/did you get coverage?

Just moved into a new house and received a letter for an "Exterior Water Service Line Coverage" from HomeServe as a CALWATER customer.

The letter states that the exterior of this water line is not covered home insurance and in case of a breakage it would cost thousands of dollars.

The cost is 6.99$/month (3.50/month for the first year) and coverage is up to 12k/year.

One concerning remark in the letter is also "The service line beyond the meter box may be an additional responsibility of the homeowner, but it is not included in this coverage".

What are the odds that such a line breaks, in say 20 years?

A "Replace water service line 26-100ft" is listed as $2661. It would take me ~30years to break even. In other words, if the chances are high that the line breaks in less than 30 years I am better off with this insurance. If this is less likely (as far as I know sewer lines are good for 100+ years) I'd be better off saving these monthly costs. This calculation does not take inflation/opportunity costs into account.

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Did (would) you get something like this?

submitted by /u/segdy
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source https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/usy4df/bayarea_how_likely_is_it_statistically_that/
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